PER CAPITA INCOME, UNEMPLOYEMENT AND RURAL POPULATION IN NIGERIA (1986-2023)
Abstract
In the quest to discovering new knowledge from the Arthur Lewis Structural Theory in today’s Nigeria, this study investigated the relationship between rural population and unemployment and per capita productivity in Nigeria, using time series data ranging between 1986 and 2023. The study also utilised dynamic modelling and co-integration techniques in the analysis. Among the various findings, there is a positive and highly significant relationship between rural population and per capita income in Nigeria. Also, migration contributes less to general welfare and productivity in Nigeria, unlike in economically advanced world. In contrast to Adenike (2014), unemployment has a negative and highly significant relationship with per capita income in Nigeria.The result greatly supports the argument against the Arthur Lewis’s assumption of surplus labour in rural areas on the grounds that labour migration to urban areas may not have the necessary technical skills needed in today’s industrial labour engagements. Migrating to cities does not, on its own, significantly contribute to productivity per capita in the country, especially when general population of people in Nigeria is growing at the same time. On this note, the public sector and Non-governmental Organiations should invest more in education, entrepreneurial and apprenticeship training, specifically in rural areas, which will also help to bring more people out of poverty, more entrepreneurs moving into the formal sector, thereby increasing real economic strength of the nation and productivity.
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